Price of oil

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July 22, ; Accepted date: August 31, ; Published date: Multivariate Analysis Sectoral Oil Consumption. Bus Eco J 6: This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Visit for more related articles at Business and Economics Journal. Oil is becoming the most prominent indicator of economic growth in Pakistan with increase of its demand. Also oil prices are doing their main contribution to impact the GDP of Pakistan including different shock dummies in data.

In this study, Cobb-Douglas production function has used to construct three models by introducing three major sectors of oil consumption of Pakistan Transport, Power and Industrial sector oil consumption and Pakistan's oil price variable to investigate the impact on GDP. ADF and Johansen Maximum Likelihood method of cointegration are used to test the order of integration, Long run and short run dynamics between variable respectively using annual data since in context of Pakistan.

Through examining the results, the long run and dynamic relationship has detected for all the variables except industrial oil consumption and oil price variables for model has no short run impact on GDP. Oil prices impacting real GDP negatively in long run but positively in short run. Sectoral oil consumption of Pakistan; Oil shocks; Johansen maximum likelihood method; Oil prices; Time series.

Since oil demand has increased rapidly in all over the world because of world oil price has driving down [ 1 ]. The existing literature has suggested the many possible impacts of oil shocks on the economic growth [ 2 ]. Increase in the oil price cause to increase in the production cost, import bills and price of petroleum products, so the decline in the productivity due to increasing cost of input oil cause decline in the consumption level, investment and consequently in economic growth [ 3 ].

So oil price shocks limit the oil consumption which can be lead to lessen the economic growth. Consumption of energy plays vital role in enhancing the growth of economy [ 4 ].

Oil consumption plays crucial role in every sector of economy i. There is difference in results of causal relationship related to energy-growth model of developed and developing country like Pakistan.

Developed countries show more intensity toward energy consumption [ 6 ]. Many studies have been done on causality issue of energy and economic growth. But still there is dilemma to conclude the reliable result. Majority of studies are available related to oil prices, its consumption and its impact on the economic growth for developed countries [ 78 ]. But recently there are lots of studies are available on the context of oil prices, its consumption and its impact on the economic growth [ 469 - 19 ].

All these studies concluded diverse results oil prices in pakistan dubai economy energy oil consumption and growth. These all studies have not given the satisfactory conclusion that which are specific determinants that impacts the relationship between consumption and growth of the economy. But by examining the all studies mentioned above oil prices in pakistan dubai economy can be said that difference of result is due to use of different source of data, time span and econometrics techniques these are different for different countries, so results could be inconsistent.

The country like Pakistan whose major imports comprises on oil and oil products and Pakistan is depending heavily on the oil as input in industrial, transport and electricity sector. As many developing countries generate electricity from cheap sources like water, wind etc, but in Pakistan oil is the major source to produce electricity that is costly input.

In Pakistan studies were conducted that estimate relationship between use of oil and economic growth specifically [ 520 - 23 ]. In these studies three stage Granger causality test and ECM approach has been used to test causality respectively and Johansen cointegration test for cointegration analysis. In these studies oil prices or oil price shock variable has denied, as its very important factor to effect the economic growth. The core objective is to analyze the results of oil prices and oil price shocks on economic growth.

We also investigate impact of other shocks on economic growth of Pakistan. The other objective of the study is to investigate the impact of oil consumption on economic growth of Pakistan by using cointegration analysis and dynamic Error Correction Model. The study is arranged as follows: Finally section 5 demonstrates the conclusions of the study. Pakistan has to need a continued long term economic growth of 7 percent to increase its general living standards and meaning full economic development.

The economic growth of Pakistan has declined since and viewed at 2. The expected growth in is around 3 percent which is low then the targeted growth 4.

Slow macroeconomic determinants have been the main factors of low oil prices in pakistan dubai economy growth. The world oil prices in pakistan dubai economy has suffered badly due to oil shocks since There are five main oil shocks in the world oil prices in pakistan dubai economy affected the whole universe.

Oil shocks can be defined as the oil prices increases enough to effect recession or slow down the economy. Followings are the reasons of oil shocks in the oil prices in pakistan dubai economy and can be seen through Figure 1.

World Bank Data Indicator. World Crude Oil Price. It is observed that oil prices in its market place went down but meanwhile, in the context of Saudi its income went upward due to oil extraction and domestic low price.

OPEC had set an oil price at 18 dollar per container in December, but that price was not continued for a long period and decreased in the start of After that Iraqi and Kuwait war pay an important role to increased oil prices due to instability of oil supply in But after Gulf war Kuwait and Iraqi war the oil price was noticed a considerable decreased till and reached at the same price which was in Later then inthe price increased and goes toward revival due to reduced oil supply by OPEC and maintained at the level of 1.

In toOil producing and exporting countries OPEC has try to allocate a quota among its member countries to maintained the oil supply in the world but they are failed due to not serious action by its members and specially Saudi Arabia, which decreased its oil supply because of decline oil prices in pakistan dubai economy oil prices. In the mid, they tried to correlate the oil prices with blemish oil market to maintain the oil prices less the 10 dollar per container.

These all shocks have great impact on the GDP of oil importing country, like Pakistan. Other than these external shocks Pakistan oil prices are also affected by the internal shocks due to different natural and political disasters in the country.

Oil prices in pakistan dubai economy Pakistan three major sector of oil consumption are transport, power generation sector and industrial sector. In s Pakistan economy was growing with the increase in energy demand. In energy consumption has increased as in previous year. So oil consumption in to shows drastic negative trend and deceased 3.

During almost 8. But in it oil prices in pakistan dubai economy higher in amount then in that was 16 million tons consumed by transport sector of Pakistan. In the overall condition of energy consumption was very sever due to high oil prices.

In transport sector, petrol surged In the percentage of sectoral oil consumption is given below in the Figure 2. There was increase in the consumption of FO and high speed diesel HSD due to increase of power sector needs. But still this sale was less than in Power sector petroleum consumption decreases 5. Oil consumption reaches at 8.

The average crude oil production in is barrel per day. In almost here was This is 2 nd consecutive year in which oil consumption has decreases. In this year consumption of oil in power generation sector has declines from 7 to 8. Economic Survey of Pakistan. Pakistan real GDP grew at higher rate of 8. In high oil prices in the world market cause the decline in the exports that cause to reach the current account deficit at 8. Before the GDP has increased due to mysql mysqlbinlog unknown variable 'default-character-set=utf8' consumption increase oil prices in pakistan dubai economy the high oil prices.

Pakistan GDP growth in was 1. Oil prices increase effects the macroeconomic factors of Pakistan like; investment, consumption, BOP and unemployment. In the oil import bill reached at Trade deficit also increases in then previous year due to heavy imports. That causes the increase in prices of electricity and gas. As we know that Pakistan is oil deficit country oil prices in pakistan dubai economy due to increase in import bill, Pakistan has facing increase in circular debt in recent years.

Circular debt is because of oil prices in pakistan dubai economy refinery utilization, constraint in binary options are evil and scam brokers margins, and capability of imports and delay of projects.

So there is need to reduce and finally cut down the subsidies to energy sector by government to stop the further increase in circular debt. If we examine the international studies relate to oil consumption, growth and prices it can be seen that literature in context to energygrowth has been initiated with the study of Kraft [ 12 ]. It is notice that mostly authors seem interested in finding the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth.

Many initial studies have done bivariate analysis in this respect, which could generate biased results due to omission of relevant variables. Afterward more complex studies had examined in which aggregate as well as at disaggregate level studies delivered including oil consumption analysis but only few studies are available, such as; multivariate analysis like Levent and Korap, panel data analysis using Hasio Granger causality test as Chenge and Lai [ 14 ], maximum likelihood method of cointegration by Johansen [ 24 ] and VECM approach as in Soytas and Sari [ 25 ], were used in recent international papers.

But these studies generated different results from each other even for same sample data as Akarca and Long [ 26 ], and very few studies has included the important oil shocks factor in their analysis as in Bekhet and Oil prices in pakistan dubai economy [ oil prices in pakistan dubai economy ], these results could be different due having different techniques, different sample data, times series properties of the data and different country.

So results could be different, although at international level, few studies have used advanced econometric techniques. If we look up the studies oil prices in pakistan dubai economy context of Pakistan, numbers of studies could be found on the issue of energy-growth, in case of Pakistan there are studies at aggregate energy level as well as disaggregate level of energy from these only few studies oil prices in pakistan dubai economy available that are specifically on oil consumption and economic growth like Qazi and Riaz [ 20 ], and only one study that is on oil consumption and economic growth including major and minor sectors of oil consumption [ 5 ].

If we examine the previous study of Zaman et al. In previous oil prices in pakistan dubai economy oil price variable and shock dummies were not included that could have significant impact on the economy. Oil consumption variables are positively cointegrated with economic growth in Zaman et al. But oil consumption variables including oil sectors show unidirectional causal relationship by using pair wise Oil prices in pakistan dubai economy nger causality test. In this study Johansen cointegration test has used and found all variables cointegrated.

But these results could be biased by estimating single the dynamic equation for aggregate as well as aggregate oil consumption due to multicoliniearity.

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Heavier, sour crude oils lacking in tidewater access—such as Western Canadian Select— are less expensive than lighter, sweeter oil —such as WTI. The goal of these countries was to increase its influence in the world oil market, then dominated by a cartel known as the " Seven Sisters ", five of which were headquartered in the United States.

From til mid , the price of oil rose significantly. It was explained by the rising oil demand in countries like China and India. In the middle of , price started declining due to a significant increase in oil production in USA, and declining demand in the emerging countries. There are two views dominating the oil market discourse.

There are those who strongly believe that the market has undergone structural changes and that low oil prices are here to stay for a prolonged period. At the other end of the spectrum, there are those who think that this is yet another cycle and oil prices will recover sooner rather than later. These two scenarios — structural versus cyclical — reflect the high degree of uncertainty engulfing the oil market.

This presupposes that we can separate neatly the cyclical from the structural, but this would be an oversimplification. All the factors discussed above have become intertwined and the response of one part of the system will affect the other parts. A survey of the academic literature finds that "most major oil price fluctuations dating back to are largely explained by shifts in the demand for crude oil".

Historically, inventory demand has been high in times of geopolitical tension in the Middle East, low spare capacity in oil production, and strong expected global economic growth. Financial analysts and academics have had very few tools to study such political events compared to what is available on economic aspects of oil price formation. The supply of oil is dependent on geological discovery, the legal and tax framework for oil extraction, the cost of extraction, the availability and cost of technology for extraction, and the political situation in oil-producing countries.

Both domestic political instability in oil producing countries and conflicts with other countries can destabilise the oil price. During the Arab oil embargo of —the first oil shock—the price of oil rapidly rose to double in price.

During the Iranian Revolution the price of oil rose. During the s there was a period of "conservation and insulation efforts" and the price of oil dropped slowly to c. It again reached a peak of c. Following that, there was a period of global recessions and the price of oil hit a low of c. Although the oil price is largely determined by the balance between supply and demand—as with all commodities—some commentators including Business Week , the Financial Times and the Washington Post , argued that the rise in oil prices prior to the financial crisis of — was due to speculation in futures markets.

WTI is a light crude oil , lighter than Brent Crude oil. It contains about 0. Its properties and production site make it ideal for being refined in the United States, mostly in the Midwest and Gulf Coast regions. Cushing, Oklahoma , a major oil supply hub connecting oil suppliers to the Gulf Coast, has become the most significant trading hub for crude oil in North America.

In Europe and some other parts of the world, the oil price benchmark is Brent as traded on the Intercontinental Exchange ICE, into which the International Petroleum Exchange has been incorporated for delivery at Sullom Voe. The Energy Information Administration EIA uses the imported refiner acquisition cost, the weighted average cost of all oil imported into the US, as its "world oil price". In Robert Mabro 's book on challenges and opportunities in oil in the 21st century, after the collapse of the OPEC-administered pricing system in , and a short lived experiment with netback pricing, oil-exporting countries adopted a market-linked pricing mechanism.

Oil is marketed among other products in commodity markets. By widely traded oil futures, and related natural gas futures, included with most of these oil futures having delivery dates every month: In June Business Week reported that the surge in oil prices prior to had led some commentators to argue that at least some of the rise was due to speculation in the futures markets.

Storing oil is expensive, and all speculators must ultimately, and generally within a few months, sell the oil they purchase. According to a U.

The interim report by the Interagency Task Force, released in July, found that speculation had not caused significant changes in oil prices and that fundamental supply and demand factors provide the best explanation for the crude oil price increases.

The report found that the primary reason for the price increases was that the world economy had expanded at its fastest pace in decades, resulting in substantial increases in the demand for oil, while the oil production grew sluggishly, compounded by production shortfalls in oil-exporting countries.

The report stated that as a result of the imbalance and low price elasticity , very large price increases occurred as the market attempted to balance scarce supply against growing demand , particularly in the last three years.

The report forecast that this imbalance would persist in the future, leading to continued upward pressure on oil prices, and that large or rapid movements in oil prices are likely to occur even in the absence of activity by speculators.

The task force continues to analyze commodity markets and intends to issue further findings later in the year. The strategy works because oil prices for delivery in the future are trading at a premium to those in the spot market - a market structure known in the industry as contango - with investors expecting prices to eventually recover from the near 60 percent slide in oil in the last seven months.

The oil-storage trade, also referred to as contango, a market strategy in which large, often vertically-integrated oil companies purchase oil for immediate delivery and storage—when the price of oil is low— and hold it in storage until the price of oil increases.

Investors bet on the future of oil prices through a financial instrument , oil futures in which they agree on a contract basis, to buy or sell oil at a set date in the future.

Crude oil is stored in salt mines, tanks and oil tankers. Investors can choose to take profits or losses prior to the oil-delivery date arrives. Or they can leave the contract in place and physical oil is "delivered on the set date" to an "officially designated delivery point", in the United States, that is usually Cushing , Oklahoma. When delivery dates approach, they close out existing contracts and sell new ones for future delivery of the same oil. The oil never moves out of storage.

If the forward market is in " contango "—the forward price is higher than the current spot price —the strategy is very successful.

By the end of October one in twelve of the largest oil tankers was being used more for temporary storage of oil, rather than transportation. From June to January , as the price of oil dropped 60 percent and the supply of oil remained high, the world's largest traders in crude oil purchased at least 25 million barrels to store in supertankers to make a profit in the future when prices rise.

Trafigura , Vitol , Gunvor , Koch , Shell and other major energy companies began to book booking oil storage supertankers for up to 12 months. Each VLCC can hold 2 million barrels. In as global capacity for oil storage was out-paced by global oil production, and an oil glut occurred.

By 5 March , as oil production outpaces oil demand by 1. Peak oil is the period when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. It relates to a long-term decline in the available supply of petroleum.

This, combined with increasing demand, will significantly increase the worldwide prices of petroleum derived products. Most significant will be the availability and price of liquid fuel for transportation.

The US Department of Energy in the Hirsch report indicates that "The problems associated with world oil production peaking will not be temporary, and past "energy crisis" experience will provide relatively little guidance.

According to the United Nations , world oil demand is projected to reach over 99 million barrels per day in A major rise or decline in oil price can have both economic and political impacts. The decline on oil price during — is considered to have contributed to the fall of the Soviet Union.

The reduction in food prices that follows lower oil prices could have positive impacts on violence globally. Research shows that declining oil prices make oil-rich states less bellicose. The macroeconomics impact on lower oil prices is lower inflation. A lower inflation rate is good for the consumers. This means that the general price of a basket of goods would increase at a bare minimum on a year to year basis. Consumer can benefit as they would have a better purchasing power, which may improve real gdp [54].

However, in recent countries like Japan, the decrease in oil prices may cause deflation and it shows that consumers are not willing to spend even though the prices of goods are decreasing yearly, which indirectly increases the real debt burden. The oil importing economies like EU, Japan, China or India would benefit, however the oil producing countries would lose. It shows the GDP increase between 0.

Katina Stefanova has argued that falling oil prices do not imply a recession and a decline in stock prices. Economists have observed that the oil glut also known as s oil glut started with a considerable time-lag, more than six years after the beginning of the Great Recession: But nothing guarantee[d] such price levels in perpetuity ".

During —, OPEC members consistently exceeded their production ceiling, and China experienced a marked slowdown in economic growth. At the same time, U. A combination of factors led a plunge in U.

It has also been argued that the collapse in oil prices in should be very beneficial for developed western economies, who are generally oil importers and aren't over exposed to declining demand from China. The most vulnerable economies were those with a high dependence on fuel and mineral exports to China, such as: On the other hand, lower commodity prices led to an improvement in the trade balance — through lower the cost of raw materials and fuels — across commodity importing economies, particularly Cambodia, Kyrgyzstan, Nepal and other remote island nations Kiribati, Maldives, Micronesia F.

S , Samoa, Tonga, and Tuvalu which are highly dependent on fuel and agricultural imports [68]. The North Sea oil and gas industry was financially stressed by the reduced oil prices, and called for government support in May The use of hedging using commodity derivatives as a risk management tool on price exposure to liquidity and earnings, has been long established in North America. With the large number of bankruptcies as reported by Deloitte [18] "funding [for upstream oil industry] is shrinking and hedges are unwinding.

To finance exploration and production of the unconventional shale oil industry in the United States, "hundreds of billions of dollars of capital came from non-bank participants [non-bank buyers of bank energy credits] in leveraged loans] that were thought at the time to be low risk. A classic example of taking on too much risk through hedging is the collapse of Penn Square Bank caused by plummeting of the price of oil in At the 5th annual World Pensions Forum in , Jeffrey Sachs advised institutional investors to divest from carbon-reliant oil industry firms in their pension fund 's portfolio.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. This article is about the price of crude oil. For information about derivative motor fuels, see gasoline and diesel usage and pricing. For detailed history of price movements since , see World oil market chronology from World oil market chronology from Oil depletion and Peak oil.

Retrieved February 17, Retrieved 16 February The Journal of American History. Retrieved March 25, — via NYTimes. Retrieved March 25, Retrieved 17 February